Autoria: SANTOS, J. C. B. dos; RAMOS, R. S.; CARMO, D. das G. do; PICANCO, M. C.; GUEDES, E. P.; SANTANA JUNIOR, P. A.; SARMENTO, R. A.; RIBAS, N. de S.; AMARO, G. C.; SILVA, R. S. da

Resumo: Corn stunt (CS) and corn reddening (CR) are considered the main phytosanitary problems of corn crops in the Neotropical region, caused by Spiroplasma kunkelii and Candidatus Phytoplasma ssp., respectively. Models that evaluate the potential geographic distribution of CS and CR are important to know which regions and areas are suitable for formulating appropriate policies and preventive measures. This study aimed to identify highly suitable areas and assess the impact of climate change on the distribution of CS and CR. To do this, we developed two spatial distribution models for CS and CR. We found 193 points of occurrence for CS and 158 points for CR. Considering its biology and ecology, we used R-based analysis version 4.4.0 ‘Puppy Cup’ to predict potential global distribution of CS and CR using bioclimatic variables. We found that the most critical abiotic variables driving the global distribution of CS were: mean diurnal range, maximum temperature of the warmest month, and temperature seasonality. For the global distribution of CR, the most important variables were: isothermality, mean diurnal range, precipitation of the warmest quarter, and precipitation of the driest quarter. With regard to the validation of the forecast (2041–2060), the SSP2–4.5 models showed greater adaptability in the world’s main corn-producing countries: the United States, China and Brazil. On the other hand, for SSP5–8.5, Maxent predicted that suitable CS and CR habitat will decrease by 2060 in the United States, China and Brazil. These countries showed a significant reduction in the occurrence of CS and CR. Our modelling results will provide helpful information to determine the spatial distribution of CS and CR and outline implications for monitoring through the risks of these diseases based on climatic conditions worldwide, especially in SSP2–4.5 senarios.

Ano de publicação: 2025

Tipo de publicação: Artigo de periódico

Unidade: Embrapa Roraima

Palavras-chave: Climate changes, Crop protection, MaxEnt, Species distribution